Volume 3 Issue 8 (Text)

ONE WAY OR ANOTHER(?)

The assumption this year is that Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) would be the only chance to break the last racial barrier in American electoral politics. Obama has 30 presidential nomination contests victories, over 1400 delegates and has received the most votes of anyone running for president. He seems on the verge of becoming the first African American on the presidential ticket of a national party. The Democratic Party has already shattered the gender glass ceiling when the party nominated the irascible Geraldine Ferraro in 1980 when former Vice President Walter Mondale was overmatched in his election against Ronald Reagan. During the ’80 campaign, Mondale, after a bruising nomination fight with Colorado Senator Gary Hart and civil rights activist Rev. Jesse Jackson, needed something to jump start his effort against Reagan who was becoming very attractive to poor and low income Democratic voters. Those “Regan Democrats” had been part of the base of his and Jimmy Carter wins in 1976 and the party could ill afford to lose them, so Mondale hoped to offset the potential loss by appealing to women. Many are beginning to wonder if presumptive GOP nominee Senator John McCain will also pick an “appeal” vice presidential candidate in 2008.

It appears that McCain will be locked in a tight contest with either Obama or Sen. Hillary Clinton. The Real Clear Politics average of national polls between March 25 and April 5 show Obama and McCain in a flat footed tie and the Republicans with a slim two and a half point lead over Clinton during that same time period. Electoral map junkies have the race a tossup and Tim Russert of Meet the Press recently came up with a 269-269 electoral tie between Obama and McCain one short of the 270 needed for victory thus sending the election to the House of Representatives. In a race that promises to be that close, it may be a year when the vice presidential pick actually may sway votes and an “appeal” choice may be made. If Obama captures the Democratic nomination he has promised an increase of at least 30% in African American voter turnout, putting states with large Black populations in play for Democrats. However, if the party passes Obama over, there could be a “Blacklash” of sorts against Sen. Clinton if she doesn’t choose Obama as her number two. That all depends on if Obama even wants number two. Clearly, he’s not interested.

In either example, if McCain’s veep pick is an African American it could alter the race and tip it in his favor. If Obama heads the ticket or backs up Clinton, a Black GOP VP nominee could cut into the hyped Black Democratic vote and keep African American Republicans home who have considered bolting the party for Obama. However, the more interesting “what-if” is Clinton winning the nomination, ignoring Obama and triggering the “blacklash.” African Americans have shown with their votes that they want Obama to make history and there are already some rumblings that if the nomination is “taken” from Obama, Blacks may stay at home - voting for McCain would be a very, very remote possibility. However, that option could be much easier if an African American was on the ticket with McCain.

The issue for McCain: who? His choices are slim. But speculation surrounding Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is increasing and intriguing. Rice would give McCain a woman, with actual foreign, security and defense policy experience, and color. The pick would bolster his policy strength, his base appeal with Rice’s conservative credentials … and, maybe, give him a chance to pick up some disgruntled Black votes. Still, African American voters have shown just as much hostility to Black Republican candidate as they have to Whiter counterparts. Black Republicans don’t have the sort of “authenticity” and track record community credibility many look for. It may actually attract more White voters looking for a chance to put an African American in the White House as a signal of “racial” progress.

But beyond Rice, who publicly says she doesn’t want it, the Arizona Senator’s choices are very slim if Rice really doesn’t want to be vice President. Former Maryland Lt. Governor and United States Senate candidate Michael Steele’s name has popped up as has former Oklahoma Congressman and current TV political analyst J.C. Watts. Both are very telegenic and affable. The lack of choices is very telling about the GOP’s modern lack of hue. But the story for now is that there is still a chance for an African Americans to make history. Which party will make it happen?


“DON’T CALL IT A COMEBACK …”

For a weeklong minute, it appeared as though New York wouldn’t pass a budget. But, now the state has a $122 billion spending plan and a nearly $5 billion budget gap closed. For a moment, it also looked like David Paterson’s glory would be short lived. Now, he’s as golden as Jill Scott.

The near fall of newly minted New York Governor David Paterson (D) was an unbelievable mix of movie drama and hard gossip. Obviously, the Empire State’s first African American Governor (and the nation’s first blind one), may have thought that it was best to make a move straight out of the Obama Playbook: put it all out there. Preempt the reporters; defuse the speculation; somehow dodge the innuendo; get the rumors before they get you. He had figured that the rumors were floating, or beginning to tread on what started out as a superstar beginning for him. So, it was time to get out front. Better he do it that way than end up like Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D) in Detroit.

So, yes, it’s not only Republicans getting caught with the pants down. It has nothing to do with party as much as it has with the nature of things and people. Politicians are human. It didn’t exactly work the way Paterson expected. Keeping with the tone and style of his few days in the executive office, Paterson exemplified transparent government with brutally candid disclosures about extra-marital indiscretions. But – he didn’t stop there. He then talked about how both he and his wife strayed, each faced with a nasty separation at the time. We don’t much like the details, because this is a political report. But – he didn’t stop there, either. He soon reveals drug use and experimentation in his younger years, from marijuana to cocaine.

True: the politician who puts his loins on display is nowadays seen as the honest and humble politician. It’s attractive to voters looking for real. On the surface, it made good sense. But, it seemed poorly executed and uncontrolled. Unlike Obama, Paterson didn’t write a book; in fact, he didn’t appear to even script it – he just spit it out and let the media folk jump on it with no back-up plan. There is a careful and calculating way to do this. Paterson, simply put, isn’t an Obama.

We can’t place too much blame on Paterson as himself more so than we can place blame on Governor Paterson. Since he just got in, perhaps the communications machine in Albany wasn’t fully acclimated to him, yet. Still, a serious miscalculation was on the horizon.

The New York public, shook up a little by it since they had already been traumatized by former and disgraced Governor Elitot Spitzer, seemed to appreciate it at the very least. At least he was being honest. But, it was the last thing he needed to talk about in the midst of a projected $4.6 billion state budget shortfall. Paterson may have went in a little arrogant, a little too cocky since he was a former state legislator, thinking he could simply rub old elbows with cobwebbed charm. Didn’t he see the Republicans in Albany smelling blood? Didn’t he see that they might grab onto anything, including his very public personal challenges, to avert the potential of Democrats controlling all of state government in 2009? Didn’t it seem a bit odd to put it all out there?

Perhaps. Perhaps not. Whatever it is he did, it has bigger plans written all over it. He was barely in the Governor’s mansion before he passed that budget, indicating the prowess of an effective politician, legislator and executive. He’s got some sort of gift, finding a way to pass a budget within such a quick period of time, accomplishing within weeks what Spitzer couldn’t do in years. So, now, he’s off to a good start for the remaining 18 months of this term, setting himself up for swift election in 2010. But, there are plenty whispers about Paterson, an ardent Hillary Clinton supporter, hoping to fill a vacant U.S. Senate seat should she become the Democratic presidential nominee by August. He may be hoping for that. Or: maybe she could switch it up with him if she loses the nomination, he taking the Senate seat while she cruises to Albany (perhaps in a match-up with former Mayor and failed Republican presidential candidate Rudy Guiliani) to get the executive experience that makes her much a much more viable candidate in the next 4 to 8 years. Those whispers get louder.