| by Sharon Smith Harrisburg Patriot-News With three black candidates topping GOP tickets in key races nationwide, many dubbed this the year of the black Republican. But polls suggest this might not be the year. Lynn Swann trails Gov. Ed Rendell by double-digit percentage points and has yet to make a dent in his Philadelphia base, which comprises mostly black voters. Republican Ken Blackwell is, on average, a 24-point underdog to Democrat Tim Strickland in the Ohio governor's race. And Michael Steele, considered by many to have the best shot at winning, is running nearly 6 percentage points behind Democrat Ben Cardin for Paul Sarbanes' open U.S. Senate seat in Maryland. It now appears Deval Patrick, the Democratic candidate for Massachusetts governor, could become the second elected black governor in the nation. He leads by 25 points in polls over his Republican challenger. Black Democrat Harold Ford appears to have a shot at beating Republican Bob Corker in the Tennessee U.S. Senate race. Ford trails Corker, on average, by 2.3 percentage points. I f Swann, Blackwell and Steele lose, it will have more to do with timing and party affiliation than the color of their skin. "It looks like it's shaping up not to be the year of the Republican regardless of color," said Peter Groff, director of the Center for African American Policy at the University of Denver. "The timing was just wrong and for so many other Republicans." Swann's poll numbers are comparable to those of white Republicans seeking a similar office elsewhere in the country, he said. "The numbers are basically the same," Groff said. "It would be hard to say Pennsylvanians refused to vote for an African-American for governor." Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, was of the same mind-set. "It's a Democratic year," Sabato said. "It's really that simple. In another year, Michael Steele might have been able to win. Lynn Swann might have been able to win." Swann is running against a strong governor, and Steele is running in a blue state in a blue year, he said. Steele "didn't have a chance," Sabato said. Blackwell faced a more daunting challenge than Swann and Steele because outgoing Republican Gov. Bob Taft led an administration that was touched by scandal. "No Republican would have succeeded Bob Taft," Sabato said. The idea that Republicans did not support their black candidates isn't true, he said. "They've poured resources into the Steele race in particular," Sabato said. Swann also has been the beneficiary of Republican money. As of September, Swann received a little more than $400,000 from Republican party committees, according to the Institute of Money in State Politics. Swann's problems aren't due solely to this not being the best year to be a Republican, said G. Terry Madonna, a public affairs professor at Franklin & Marshall College. He expected Swann to do more to court black voters, particularly in Philadelphia. "I thought he would spend a lot of time and effort there," Madonna said. "I thought he would easily outdo Mike Fisher's 10 to 13 percent." An August Keystone Poll showed that Swann would capture 12 percent of the Philadelphia vote compared with 78 percent for Rendell. Some in the Republican Party, such as Renee Amoore, said they remain confident that Swann has a chance to win. "We will definitely make history," Amoore said. "I think he's already made history being recognized by the Republican Party." Sabato sees Steele as having the best shot at a bright political future. Blackwell, Sabato said, is mostly likely finished. Swann's prospects aren't as clear. "Lynn Swann," Sabato said, "I don't know. It's a question to me. He's going to lose handily." The timing might not have been right for Swann, Blackwell and Steele, but the year has not been a wash for black Republicans, Groff said. Based on a growing black population, it's most likely a prelude of what's to come, he and other experts said. "Topping tickets is still a pretty good leap for black Republicans," Groff said. |