(8.1.06 / Vol. 1 / #1)
(8.1.06 / Vol. 1 / #1)| Patrick Riding High in Massachusetts As the campaign season jumped this year in earnest, many political observers said Harold Ford, Jr., Kenneth Blackwell and Lynn Swann were the big names to watch. Very few people mentioned Deval Patrick. The former US Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights in the Clinton administration was seen as a long shot in his ambitious bid for Governor of Massachusetts. Running against the current state Attorney General and a big money venture capitalist, Mr. Patrick was an unmistakable under-dog at the time, with heightening odds stacked against him. But as the campaign stumped through the streets, neighborhoods and towns of the Bay State, something unusual happened. Patrick's community and opportunity themes resonated heavily with Massachusetts Democrats. and his poll numbers began to rise. By June, signs of Patrick as a serious contender began to surface, with Patrick looking more credible ... and much more gubernatorial. He wowed the faithful at his state party's convention with a speech on "Politics and Hope." Riding the wave of what the Boston Globe called the " ... day’s most enthusiastic response" Mr. Patrick secured the top line on the September 19th primary ballot by winning 58% of the vote. Besides winning the coveted top line at the convention, Mr. Patrick leads most primary polls and mock match-ups with presumptive Republican nominee Lt. Governor Kerry Healey. In fact, recent polls show Patrick leading Attorney General Thomas Reilly by an average of 9 points, and businessman Chris Gabrieli by over 12 points. In a fall showdown with the Lt. Governor, Patrick leads by an average of 14 points in the last three polls. That 14 point advantage is a tremendous boost to the Patrick campaign, averaging higher than either AG Reilly or Gabrieli leads in potential match ups with Healey. It may also galvanize anti-Republican sentiment in that state. If the polls prove correct, the big name on November 8th may very well be that of Deval Patrick . Potential Rule Changes Could Cripple Historical Power Democrats are quick to assume that they're better Congressional managers than their Republican colleagues, especially when it comes to running the United States House Representatives - or do at least as well. To prove that point a steering committee of Dems met recently to examine Committee rule changes for the Democrat caucus. Changes would apply to chairmanships (should there be a new shift in the majority) or ranking membership (when still in the minority) putting less importance on seniority and more emphasis on caucus participation, fundraising and overall party participation. Currently, the 26 page Democratic caucus rulebook refers to seniority at least a dozen times. Seniority had been the long honored standard by which parties in Congress named chairpersons and ranking members of committees, but that rule changed in 1975 to allow the caucus’ to elect its Chairs. In 1995 then Speaker Newt Gingrich further limited committee chairs to three two year terms, but despite the changes over the last 30 years, seniority still and should play a critical role in naming chairs and ranking members. Members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) hope this role will be significant part of the decision making process if Democrats regain control of the House in November. Presently, 24 CBC members are ranking members on 23 House committees and subcommittees (* indicates full Committees): Rep. Corrine Brown (D-FL) Ranking Member - Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Railroads Committee Del. Donna Christian-Christensen (D-V.I.) Ranking Member - Resources Committee, National Parks Committee Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) * Ranking Member - Judiciary Committee Rep. William Lacy Clay (D-MO) Ranking Member - Government Reform Committee, Federalism and the Census Committee Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD) Ranking Member - Government Reform Committee, Criminal Justice, Drug Policy and Human Resources Committee Rep. Danny K. Davis (D-IL) Ranking Member - Government Reform Committee, Federal Workforce and Agency Organization Committee Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL) Ranking Member - Rules Committee, Legislative and Budget Process Committee Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-TX) Ranking Member - Judiciary Committee, Immigration, Border Security and Claims Committee Rep. Eddie Bernice-Johnson (D-TX) Ranking Member - Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Water Resources and Environment Committee Del. Eleanor Holmes-Norton (D-D.C.) Ranking Member - Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Economic Development, Public Buildings and Emergency Management Committee Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) Ranking Member - Ways and Means Committee, Oversight Committee Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) Ranking Member - Homeland Security Committee, Management, Integration, and Oversight Committee Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald (D-CA) Ranking Member - Small Business Committee, Tax, Finance and Exports Committee Rep. Major Owens (D-NY) Ranking Member - Education and the Workforce Committee, Workforce Protections Committee Rep. Donald Payne (D-NJ) Ranking Member - International Relations Committee, Africa, Global Human Rights and International Operations Committee Rep. Charles B. Rangel (D-NY) * Ranking Member - Ways & Means * Ranking Member - Joint Committee on Taxation Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA) Ranking Member - Judiciary Committee, Crime, Terrorism and Homeland Security Committee Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) * Ranking Member - Homeland Security Committee Rep. Edolphus Towns (D-NY) Ranking Member - Government Reform Committee, Government Management, Finance and Accountability Committee Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) Ranking Member - Financial Services Committee, Housing and Community Opportunity Committee Rep. Diane Watson (D-CA) Ranking Member - Government Reform Committee, Energy and Resources Committee Rep. Melvin Watt (D-NC) Ranking Member - Judiciary Committee, Commercial and Administrative Law Committee Influential committees and subcommittees like Ways and Means, Judiciary, Homeland Security and Energy and Resources could, conceivably, have African American chairmen and women. If all 24 members were appointed (or elected) it would be the most powerful moment for African Americans in the history of the U.S. Congress. This historical power shift is much too important to lose to a procedural rule change. No one outside of the Beltway will care about or even know about a useless political point. We hope House Dems tread lightly with the proposed changes and keep history and their most trusted base in mind. However, the CBC has much work ahead of it as Members must struggle to consolidate influence and money in ways that can preempt the surreptitious motives of their White counterparts. These latest proposed rule changes - coupled with the eleventh hour drama and near disaster of the Voting Rights Amendment renewal - reflect a suspicious trend among both White Democrats and Republicans alike to diminish African American political power during, perhaps, its most groundbreaking moment. Swann Campaign Struggling The race started off with promise and hope for Republicans in the Keystone state. Incumbent Governor Ed Rendell (D) was seen as politically vulnerable throughout the state. This time, the GOP had a well-known, well-liked and budding political superstar in the making: Lynn Swann. The former Pittsburgh Steeler, Hall of Fame wide receiver led the charge, seemingly the candidate of the GOP’s dreams. While untested politically, Swann is well spoken with deep roots in western Pennsylvania and enough star power to equalize the more liberal leanings in the eastern part of the state and the highly respected Rendell. Poll numbers at the beginning of the year seemed to prove that thinking correct. Polls in January and February witnessed Mr. Swann within three to six points and surging. Potential primary opponents, former Lt. Governor Bill Scranton, businessman Jim Panyard and State Senator Jeff Piccola, all dropped out to clear the way for an unblemished Swann. But after several missteps and political stumbles this Spring, the Swann campaign has stalled and can’t seem to pick up traction. Most polls now show Mr. Swann trailing by double digits, including the last two showing him down by 13 points and 14 points respectively (Strategic Vision and Rasmussen Reports). While the campaign seems stagnant, Swann supporters can take some heart from those very polls that also show Mr. Swann’s favorable rating higher than that of the Governor and an unfavorable rating lower than that of his opponent. The question in the remaining days of the campaign is this: can Mr. Swann build on his popularity and Governor Rendell’s unpopularity (compared to Swann’s)? Or: can he pick up the bulk of undecided voters hovering in the low teens. At this point, even that formula wouldn’t generate a win, but the door to victory isn’t totally shut. However, the Swann campaign will need assistance to kick it in high gear. It appears it won’t come from the top of the ticket since incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum is down 10 points to State Treasurer Robert Casey, Jr. and the President holding a 34% approval rating in that state. To claim victory, the Swann team will need a meltdown from the Governor or a change of heart from African Americans who appear to be supporting Gov. Rendell in large numbers. Whatever the case, Lynn Swann is down two touchdowns ... but, there are still two quarters remaining. The G/E Political Analysis -Party Reticence Rears its Ugly Head It doesn’t seem to matter where in the country an African American candidate is running, nor what party they are representing. African American candidates are beginning to feel "party reticence," a familiar, yet oddly placed dilemma where African American federal and statewide candidates see a larger than normal decrease in electoral support from the party of which they are the nominee. Historically, there is always little electoral reluctance or lack of support for every nominee. No candidate receives 100% of their party’s support, but it becomes statistically unusual when nominees lose more than 20% - a rare occurence for most. However, it seems that if you’re a leading African American candidate, recent polling shows you suffering from a chronic dose of party reticence and lingering racial attitudes. In Pennsylvania, presumptive gubernatorial Republican nominee Lynn Swann is only receiving support from 58% of his party according to a recent Rasmussen Reports poll, a "Reticence Level" of 42%. In another Rasmussen Poll, Kenneth Blackwell, the GOP nominee for Governor of Ohio, is showing a 34% Reticence Level. A surprising number considering Blackwell is the sitting Secretary of State and former State Treasurer. Those two races alone see an average Reticence Level of 38% for the African American candidates, while their opponents are a combined 24.5% - a 14 point difference in party support in just those two races. In a tight race for Congress, the United States Senate or Governor, a 14-point difference in support from one’s own party could be damaging. Whether it's in Swann’s race, Blackwell’s campaign or Ford’s bid in Tennessee, full party support or a reticence level of 20% or less is an absolute must if they are to be declared winners in the November elections. BLUEPRINT ~ Recapturing Congress -- How the Dems Could Do It 1. Be original; 2. Have a substantive and explainable alternative on every issue; 3. Focus the national election on "pocketbook" issues and the war; 4. Don't back away from conversations and platforms on issues of morality and faith; 5. Remember: all campaigns are local; and 6. Offer a clear vision. |